Most were convinced America was headed to a recession because the inverted yield curve was a good recession predictor. People thought that inflation was transitory because of the low inflation we had seen over the last 20 years. Both groups fell into the same problem. Today, Paul brings a helpful article from MarketWatch called “Be Cautious About Relying on Historical Parallels” and explains why predicting where the economy headed is a trap and a practice that CEOs, the FED, and financial pundits can’t even get right. Later in the episode, Evan shares about a group of people on TikTok embracing “Girl Math” to justify some bad spending habits.
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